Ocean Science
www.ocean-sci.net
1812-0784
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4
1
2008
10.5194/os-4-31-2008
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/31/2008/
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/31/2008/os-4-31-2008.html
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/31/2008/os-4-31-2008.pdf
31
47
2008-02-04
Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation
G. Zodiatis
R. Lardner
D. R. Hayes
dhayes@ucy.ac.cy
G. Georgiou
S. Sofianos
N. Skliris
A. Lascaratos
Oceanography Centre, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus
Applied Physics Dept., Ocean Physics Modelling Group, University of Athens, Athen, Greece
The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing
System (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of the
northeastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantially
improved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame of
the MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourly
SKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 km
to 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from the
University of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The Variational
Initialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processes
following initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeated
every day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecast
results are posted on the web page <a href="http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos">http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos</a>. The new, daily,
high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. The
agreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used.
Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active period
produces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs in
September 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressions
of the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastal
upwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are also
modeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to the
corresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurface
Atlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of
2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvement
include assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles,
CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS ocean
observatory.
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