Ocean Science
www.ocean-sci.net
1812-0784
1812-0792
4
1
2008
10.5194/os-4-61-2008
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/61/2008/
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/61/2008/os-4-61-2008.html
http://www.ocean-sci.net/4/61/2008/os-4-61-2008.pdf
61
71
2008-02-15
Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment
J. Chiggiato
P. Oddo
oddo@bo.ingv.it
Servizio IdroMeteorologico, ARPA Emilia Romagna, Viale Silvani 6, 40122 Bologna, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Unità Funzionale di Climatologia Dinamica, via Aldo Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy
now at: CNR-ISMAR, Castello 1364, 30122 Venezia, Italy
In the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) project, the
performance of regional numerical ocean forecasting systems is assessed by
means of model-model and model-data comparison. Three different operational
systems considered in this study are: the Adriatic REGional Model (AREG);
the Adriatic Regional Ocean Modelling System (AdriaROMS) and the
Mediterranean Forecasting System General Circulation Model (MFS-GCM). AREG
and AdriaROMS are regional implementations (with some dedicated variations)
of POM and ROMS, respectively, while MFS-GCM is an OPA based system. The
assessment is done through standard scores. In situ and remote sensing data
are used to evaluate the system performance. In particular, a set of CTD
measurements collected in the whole western Adriatic during January 2006 and
one year of satellite derived sea surface temperature measurements (SST)
allow to asses a full three-dimensional picture of the operational
forecasting systems quality during January 2006 and to draw some preliminary
considerations on the temporal fluctuation of scores estimated on surface
quantities between summer 2005 and summer 2006.
<br><br>
The regional systems share a negative bias in simulated temperature and
salinity. Nonetheless, they outperform the MFS-GCM in the shallowest
locations. Results on amplitude and phase errors are improved in areas
shallower than 50 m, while degraded in deeper locations, where major models
deficiencies are related to vertical mixing overestimation. In a basin-wide
overview, the two regional models show differences in the local displacement
of errors. In addition, in locations where the regional models are mutually
correlated, the aggregated mean squared error was found to be smaller, that
is a useful outcome of having several operational systems in the same
region.
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