Ocean Science www.ocean-sci.net 1812-0784 1812-0792 5 3 2009 10.5194/os-5-259-2009 http://www.ocean-sci.net/5/259/2009/ http://www.ocean-sci.net/5/259/2009/os-5-259-2009.html http://www.ocean-sci.net/5/259/2009/os-5-259-2009.pdf 259 270 2009-07-14 Dynamically constrained ensemble perturbations – application to tides on the West Florida Shelf A. Barth a.barth@ulg.ac.be A. Alvera-Azcárate J.-M. Beckers R. H. Weisberg L. Vandenbulcke F. Lenartz M. Rixen GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER), MARE, Allée du 6-Août 17, University of Liège Sart-Tilman B5 4000 Liège, Belgium National Fund for Scientific Research, Belgium Ocean Circulation Group, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC), Viale San Bartolomeo 400, 19126 La Spezia, Italy A method is presented to create an ensemble of perturbations that satisfies linear dynamical constraints. A cost function is formulated defining the probability of each perturbation. It is shown that the perturbations created with this approach take the land-sea mask into account in a similar way as variational analysis techniques. The impact of the land-sea mask is illustrated with an idealized configuration of a barrier island. Perturbations with a spatially variable correlation length can be also created by this approach. The method is applied to a realistic configuration of the West Florida Shelf to create perturbations of the M2 tidal parameters for elevation and depth-averaged currents. The perturbations are weakly constrained to satisfy the linear shallow-water equations. Despite that the constraint is derived from an idealized assumption, it is shown that this approach is applicable to a non-linear and baroclinic model. 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