An empirical stochastic model of sea-surface temperatures and surface winds over the Southern Ocean 1University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science group, P.O. Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA
14 Nov 2011
2University of California at Los Angeles, USA
3University of Miami, USA
4Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
Received: 01 August 2011 – Published in Ocean Sci. Discuss.: 29 August 2011 Abstract. This study employs NASA's recent satellite measurements of sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) and sea-level winds (SLWs) with missing data filled-in
by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to construct empirical models that
capture both intrinsic and SST-dependent aspects of SLW variability. The
model construction methodology uses a number of algorithmic innovations that
are essential in providing stable estimates of the model's propagator. The
best model tested herein is able to faithfully represent the time scales and
spatial patterns of anomalies associated with a number of distinct
processes. These processes range from the daily synoptic variability to
interannual signals presumably associated with oceanic or coupled dynamics.
Comparing the simulations of an SLW model forced by the observed SST
anomalies with the simulations of an SLW-only model provides preliminary
evidence for the ocean driving the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean region.
Revised: 26 October 2011 – Accepted: 02 November 2011 – Published: 14 November 2011
Citation: Kravtsov, S., Kondrashov, D., Kamenkovich, I., and Ghil, M.: An empirical stochastic model of sea-surface temperatures and surface winds over the Southern Ocean, Ocean Sci., 7, 755-770, doi:10.5194/os-7-755-2011, 2011.