Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Aug 2018
Research article |
| 27 Aug 2018
| 27 Aug 2018
What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?
Jonathan Tinker
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Justin Krijnen
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Richard Wood
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Rosa Barciela
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Stephen R. Dye
Cefas, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
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Short summary
We consider the prospects for seasonal forecasts for the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas. The recent maturation of global seasonal forecast systems and NWS marine reanalyses provide a basis for such forecasts. We assess the potential of three possible approaches: direct use of global forecast fields and empirical and dynamical downscaling. We conclude that there is potential for NWS seasonal forecasts and as an example show a skillful prototype SST forecast for the English Channel.
We consider the prospects for seasonal forecasts for the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas....
