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OS | Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Ocean Sci., 14, 887–909, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Ocean Sci., 14, 887–909, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-887-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Aug 2018

Research article | 27 Aug 2018

What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Jonathan Tinker et al.
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Cited articles  
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Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Sutton, R. T., Weisheimer, A., and Scaife, A. A.: An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838, online first, 2018. 
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Becker, G. A. and Pauly, M.: Sea surface temperature changes in the North Sea and their causes, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 53, 887–898, 1996. 
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We consider the prospects for seasonal forecasts for the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas. The recent maturation of global seasonal forecast systems and NWS marine reanalyses provide a basis for such forecasts. We assess the potential of three possible approaches: direct use of global forecast fields and empirical and dynamical downscaling. We conclude that there is potential for NWS seasonal forecasts and as an example show a skillful prototype SST forecast for the English Channel.
We consider the prospects for seasonal forecasts for the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas....
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